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pdf- - Chamber of Industry and Commerce Arnsberg Hellweg

economy MAGAZINE OF IHK ARNSBERG 13 - Study: SMEs dominate in Westphalia 20 - Transfer network is being extended MARCH 2016 www.ihk-arnsberg.de Economy © kamonrat - Fotolia.com Further up! We give your ideas contour foils directly from the manufacturer. be ten let t-p w.l • and much more with ww experience • quality • all from one source lüsEbrink & tEubnEr Bourhahn 24 • 59846 Sundern Tel. +49 (0) 2933 9705-0 Fax. +49 (0) 2933 9705-50 www.schroeder-folien.de Lüsebrink & Teubner GmbH & Co. KG Ziegelstrasse 46 • D-58840 Plettenberg sEit 1911 Telephone: +49 2391 9091-0 • Fax: +49 2391 10708 Internet: www.LT-Plettenberg.de • E-Mail: [email protected] Anzeige_Luesebrink_90x125mm_mBesch_20150313.indd 1 13.03.15 11:33      Transport logistics from one Hand!  Innovative, needs-based logistics solutions from a single source are a professional thing. ALS - your reliable service provider, on land, on water and in the air. You say where to - we take care of the rest!                      Heinrich-Lübke-Straße 8 59759 Arnsberg Telephone 02932 93060 [email protected] www.als-arnsberg.de                 editorial A fly in the ointment “Dr. Ilona Lange IHK General Manager Despite the good economy, the creeping erosion of the production site is picking up speed. economy 03/2016 92 percent of the companies are satisfied with their current situation, 50 percent even rate it as “good”. There have never been better values ​​since the IHK recorded the regional economic climate. And on balance, further improvements are expected over the course of the year. Let's look forward to it: The economy is currently booming on Hellweg and in the Sauerland (see cover story). There is nothing to type about it. Nevertheless, the question must be allowed, how healthy and how sustainable is the upswing, which is mainly driven by consumption? The fly in the ointment can be found in the company's investment planning. Certainly, they are expansionary, but not nearly as expansionary as one might expect given the good economic situation. The prevailing motives also do not fit the boom. The vast majority of these are replacement or rationalization investments, only a good fifth is used to expand capacity. The distribution of investments between Germany and abroad also speaks volumes. While only 49 percent of companies wanted to invest abroad in 2015, this year the figure is 57 percent. Cost saving is the main motive of every second investment project; in the previous year only one in five had this goal. The German labor costs as the top economic risk mentioned by companies fit in with this. All of this condenses into one finding: The location worries displaced by a longer phase of wage discipline and the Agenda 2010, which haunted us after the turn of the millennium, are coming back. The cost development, especially for wages and electricity, and the increasing density of regulations prevent future investments to the necessary extent. With all the justified joy about the good economy, it should not be overlooked that the creeping erosion of the production site is gaining momentum in some industries. Do we want to wait until we have 4.9 million unemployed again in Germany before we take countermeasures? Your 1 CONTENTS Cover story I Economy 4 Tailwind for the economy 6 Good climate 7 Manufacturing industry remains the pacemaker 9 Economy at the beginning of the year 10 No flash in the pan 11 Economy at a glance 11 Industry in 2015 with sales growth Thanks to a healthy domestic economy, the economy and expectations are as good as not for a long time. This is shown by the current IHK survey at the beginning of the year. © maxhalanski - Fotolia.com Page 4 company & region 13Medium-sized companies dominate in Westphalia 16The new plenary meeting of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce Arnsberg 18Automotive suppliers still strong in South Westphalia 20 South Westphalia transfer association is being extended 23 Study: "Commerce" - The third dimension of retail "25 VdU opens regional group Sauerland politics 26 Demand for the protection of the constitution 28 From Berlin and Brussels 29 From the state capital Photo: Roger Schmidt / IHK Siegen The automotive industry in South Westphalia has defied all global challenges over the past decade and asserted itself as the strongest regional branch of industry. This is shown by the current study by the IHKs in Arnsberg, Hagen and Siegen. Page 18 news & service 32Interview: “We support and show perspectives” 35New program promotes entrepreneurial know-how 37Online arbitration board means new information obligation 39Thomas Lanwehr is the spokesman for the Wirtschaftsjunioren 39 Social security 2016 42 Anniversaries 44 IHK stock exchanges Photo: 360 ° Design rubrics 1Editorial 55 numbers, please! 56 In the next issue / Imprint 2 contrastwerkstatt - www.fotolia.de The study "Commerce" - The third dimension of retail trade shows for the first time what role the local retail trade has as part of the community and what social responsibility it assumes. Page 23 The nationwide advisory funding for small and medium-sized companies has been realigned. The new funding program "Promotion of entrepreneurial know-how" brings together previous offers. Page 35 economy 03/2016 We promote the good in NRW. Sabine Baumann-Duvenbeck and her powerhouse - supported by funding from NRW.BANK. The strength of medium-sized companies is an important engine of the economy in our region. A quality that is worth promoting. E.g. through the NRW.BANK.Efficiencykredit: Low-interest loans of 25,000 to 5 million euros for modernizations that make your systems fit for the future. Talk to us about your business goals. www.nrwbank.de/staerkewirtschaft 03/2016 3 cover topic I economy cover topic I smart city © motorradcbr - Fotolia.com 4 economy 03/2016 Tailwind for the economy The economic survey at the beginning of the year delivered a record result: half of all companies assess their current business situation with good - that has never happened since the Chamber of Industry and Commerce regularly inquired about the health of the economy. In addition to the extremely positive situation, there is an overall optimistic outlook for the year that has just started. The IHK climate indicator has risen by 11 points to 128 since last autumn. Economy 03/2016 5 cover topic I Economy Good climate Good framework conditions such as the low oil price and increasing employment are pushing the economy. The order books are well filled and the earnings situation has also improved steadily. The export business will also play a key role in 2016. 6 Although the expected values ​​fall somewhat behind the assessments of the situation, industry, retail and service providers are looking to the next few months with confidence. 28 percent assume a better development and only 12 percent assume a worse development. Only in the construction industry are there more pessimists than optimists. However, the industry has developed very dynamically in the last two years - also thanks to the increased demand for residential construction - so that the cautious expectations can be seen as a slight reassurance at a high level. The economic survey also asked about the greatest risks to further development. At the top of the list of worries are labor costs, followed by the shortage of skilled workers and domestic sales. The higher expectations in industry compared to the national trend are mostly due to structural features, for example in mechanical engineering. Medium-sized manufacturers, mostly positioned closer to the consumer, shape the picture here and less so do the large plant manufacturers, who are particularly suffering from developments in China, the Middle East and Russia. However, the outlook in industry is not entirely clear in this country either. With a balance of better and worse judgments of minus 16 percent, the metal industry is extremely pessimistic about the future. In keeping with the overall good economic situation in the Hellweg-Sauerland region, export expectations are also showing a plus. The export business, which has been a growth driver for decades, will also play a key role in 2016. In a ratio of 33 to 9 percent, the optimists are clearly ahead here. A decline in sales to the Far East is offset by dynamic developments in intra-European trade and business in North America. Thanks to strong private consumption, retail also got off to a good start in the new year. The expectations are well below the assessments of the situation, but ultimately retailers and wholesalers do not assume that the purchasing power effects due to cheap gasoline and rising wages will soon fizzle out. For 2016, the IHK also expects a small increase in investments, especially in industry, wholesale and the service sectors. "Unfortunately, we are not about to launch an investment offensive," said President Ralf Kersting when the results were presented at the end of January. The companies still lack good and reliable framework conditions. Public sector investments are no less important than private investments. Employment plans are expansive, especially in the service sector. However, in the opinion of many companies, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find the labor and, above all, skilled workers on the regional labor market. --- contact -------------------------------- Stefan Severin Tel. 02931 878-138 [email protected] - - more ----------------------------www.ihk-arnsberg.de/ umfrage_jb2016 Wirtschaft 03/2016 160 Economic climate indicator * 140 120 100 Overall climate 80 Services JB 2016 H 2015 FS 2015 JB 2015 H 2014 FS 2014 JB 2014 H 2013 FS 2013 JB 2013 H 2012 FS 2012 JB 2012 H 2011 FS 2011 JB 2011 H 2010 JB 2010 H 2009 JB 2009 H 2008 JB 2008 H 2007 JB 2007 H 2006 JB 2006 H 2005 60 JB 2005 Manufacturing industry * Both assessments of the current situation and future expectations are included in the economic climate indicator. JB = beginning of the year, FS = early summer, H = autumn The manufacturing industry continues to set the pace Industry and the construction industry set the economic direction at the beginning of the year. The climate value in these economic sectors rose to 135 points. Only twice in the past eight years have there been higher values. The industry in the region continues to show its strong side. No less than 58 percent of the companies rate their situation as good. The construction industry is not far behind, here 47 percent give a good. Noteworthy: No construction company surveyed speaks of a bad situation. Domestic and foreign demand are pushing the manufacturing economy. The domestic business, which is ultimately strengthened by private consumption, is, unsurprisingly, particularly reflected in the businesses that produce directly for consumers. Three quarters (!) Of the consumer goods manufacturers report a good economic situation. With a balance of 62 percent calculated from good and bad reports, the capital goods industry is also showing an exceptionally good business situation. The outlook for the coming months is inconsistent, but overall very positive. With a balance of 27 percent, the industry votes more optimistically than the other sectors. However, it is worth taking a look at the sub-areas here. Because not all branches of production are expecting a high-growth year 2016. Overall, the range of the balances of better / worse judgments ranges from plus 72 percent in the food industry to minus 38 percent in the metal production and processing industry. In the export-driven metal industry, the developments in important sales regions weigh heavily. The weak growth in China and other BRICS countries, the sanctions against Russia and the unstable three quarters of consumer goods manufacturers report a good economic situation. 7 Photo: Soester Anzeiger / Dahm cover topic I Economy Presented the IHK survey results (from left): IHK President Ralf Kersting, Nadine Menke (Neue Werbung), Klemens Münstermann (Möbel Turflon), IHK Managing Director Dr. Ilona Lange, Reinhold J. Lehde (J. Lehde), IHK economist Stefan Severin. The greatest investments are made in mechanical engineering. 8 Situation in the Middle East - many companies fear massive losses as a result. Against this background, it is not surprising that the industry, when asked about the greatest economic risks, puts foreign demand at the top of the list of concerns with 56 percent mentions. Nevertheless, optimism and pessimism are closely related to export expectations. Because despite the global sales risks, many companies are assuming a further increase in their own export figures. This also results in an increase of 24 percent in export expectations in the industry. Behind foreign demand, the main concern of industrial companies is labor costs (52%) and domestic sales (45%). In view of the persistently low interest rates, financing hardly plays a role as an economic risk (1.7%). The construction industry will weaken at a high level. However, the cooling will be weaker than forecast in autumn.Because the framework conditions for stable demand continue to exist: low interest rates, good overall economy, trend towards energy-efficient renovation and an investment backlog in the public infrastructure that needs to be resolved urgently. The influx of refugees could prove to be an additional small economic stimulus program. In the construction industry, the greatest economic risk is the shortage of skilled workers. The investment intentions in the industry are expansive. 36 percent of the companies will expand their involvement, 21 percent will reduce it. The good capacity utilization boosts expenditure on replacement investments. Fortunately, this is not the strongest investment motive at the start of the year. Almost 52 percent of companies plan to spend on product innovations. The greatest investments are made in mechanical engineering (balance + 30%). However, there will be no sustainable growth impetus through extensive expansion investments in 2016 either. The construction industry will reduce its investment volume overall. The good economic situation is also leaving its mark on employment plans, more clearly in the construction industry (balance + 6%) than in industry (+ 2%). However, it is not always easy to achieve employment growth in construction, as the labor market often does not have the skilled workers in demand. In industry, the food and beverage industry (balance + 38%) and mechanical engineering (+ 37%) are planning to increase their workforce, while electrical engineering (-22%) and the metal industry (-9%) are expected to reduce employment. sevwirtschaft 03/2016 COVER SUBJECT Economy at the beginning of the year Survey results, distribution of responses and balances in% Current economic situation Current economic situation Economic situation in the current section of companies Assessment of companies in the assessment of companies ECONOMIC SITUATION OF COMPANIES OF ALL COMPANIES ECONOMIC SITUATION IN SECTOR'S ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMIC SITUATION OF ALL COMPANIES ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE INDUSTRIES 10.5 56.1 33.4 10.5 56.1 33.4 10.2 10.5 52.3 56.1 37.5 33.4 10.2 52.3 37 .5 7.8 10.2 7.8 42.1 52.3 42.1 7.8 48.8 42.1 48.8 47.0 40.3 47.0 40.3 39.1 40.3 33.3 50.1 37.5 50.1 42.3 39.1 39.1 42.3 42.3 33.3 33.3 50.1 11.2 YEARSB. AUTUMN 15 YEARSB. 16 YEARSB. 15 AUTUMN 15 15 YEARS. 16 YEARS. 15 AUTUMN 15 YEARS. 16 Balances 22.9 Balances 2 7.3 22.9 42.3 27.3 Balances 22.9 27.3 42.3 good 47.0 48.8 42.3 satisfactory good bad satisfactory bad good Satisfactory Bad 11.2 11.2 Industry Industry Construction Construction Industry Construction Services Services Wholesale Wholesale Services Wholesale Retail Retail Freight transport Freight transport Retail freight transport Expectations Expectations Companies in the judgment of the expectations Companies in the judgment of the U in the judgment of the companies Expectations in the industries Expectations of all companies Expectations in the industries 12.9 12.9 12.2 12.9 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.4 26.8 26.8 26.8 18 , 7 65.1 65.1 65.1 66.9 66.9 59.7 66.9 59.7 59.7 4.4 22 22 22 21.0 21.0 27.9 21.0 27.9 27.9 -‐2.6 -‐2.6 4.4 -‐2.6 18.7 18.7 2.4 4.4 2.9 2.4 15.6 2.92.4 15.6 15.6 2.9 YEARS 15 AUTUMN 15 15 YEARSB. 16 15 YEARSB. AUTUMN YEARB. 16 Industry Industry Construction Construction YEARSB. 15 AUTUMN 15 YEARS 16 Industry Construction Services Services Wholesale Wholesale Services Wholesale Retail Freight transport Freight transport better unchanged better worse unchanged worse Retail retail freight transport better unchanged worse Balances 9 2.1 6.3 Balances 8-‐ 3.2, 8 9 2.1 6.3 9 1 , 1 5.5 8-‐3.2, 8 9 1.1 5.5 balances 9 2.1 6.3 8-‐3.2, 8 9 1.1 5.5 Investing intentions Investing intentions Investing intentions Employing intentions Employing intentions Employing intentions 21 21 21 19.8 19.8 19.8 22.5 22.5 22.5 50.2 50.2 50.2 55.9 55.9 55.9 48.8 48.8 48.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 24.3 24.3 24.3 28.8 28.8 28.8 20.7 20.7 20.7 17.9 17.9 11.6 17.9 65.9 65, 9 70 65.9 73.5 70 70 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.1 12.1 12.1 14.8 11.6 11.6 73.5 73.5 14.8 14.8 YEAR . AUTUMN YEARB. YEARB. AUTUMN 15 YEARS YEARB. 116 6 115 15 16 16 YEARB. AUTUMN YEARB. 15 YEARSB. AUTUMN 5 15 AUTUMN YEARB. 16 15 YEARSB. YEARB. 15 AUTUMN 15 15 15 YEARSB. 116 5 balances -‐ 7.2 -‐ 5.8, 2 balances 7, 8 4, 4 6, 3 balances -‐ 7.2 -‐ 5.8 3 3.2 46.4 3.2 balances 7.8 Balances 7, 8 4.4, 3 6.3 Balances -‐7.2 -‐5.8 more economy 03/2016 more unchanged unchanged less less more unchanged less more more less unchanged more unchanged unchanged less less 9 cover topic I economy © Julien Eichinger - Fotolia.com Not a flash in the pan The situation in trade and the service industries is characterized by an extremely good overall situation. Cheap oil and increasing employment with rising real wages still act like stimulus programs. The good framework conditions will also have an effect in the next few months. 10 The climate indicator rose from 109 to 119 points. It is true that trade and service providers are lagging behind the dynamics in the manufacturing sector, but in view of the future business situation, which is often difficult to forecast here, and some structural challenges, an extremely positive result. The location is good in all areas. The service providers are currently reporting well-filled order books, with an overall deterioration in earnings. 48 percent of them rate their current economic situation as good and only eight percent as bad. Satisfaction also dominates among retailers. The balance of good and bad judgments is 33 percent in retail and 11 percent among wholesalers. The strong private consumption is also pushing the stationary retail trade. The plus in retail relates to retail business, and earnings have remained at the same level since last year. According to the results of the survey, the profit situation in wholesaling has improved again, in the service sector it has deteriorated. Retail and services assume that the good framework conditions will continue to have an effect in the next few months. The future situation in wholesaling is assessed as particularly positive. Around a third of the companies expect a further improvement, 14 percent a deterioration. The forecasts are sustainably supported by good export prospects. The propensity to invest has decreased in the retail sector, wholesalers and service providers are planning expansively. However, no sustainable growth impulse from expansion investments is to be expected from these sectors either. It is mostly about replacement investments and only a few - mostly in wholesaling - about capacity expansions. Against the general trend, most wholesalers are planning with fewer staff. economy 03/2016 In the retail trade and in many service sectors, good capacity utilization results in an increasing need for staff. However, in many places it will be difficult to find the labor and, above all, skilled workers on the regional labor market. In any case, the shortage of skilled workers has become significantly more important as a feared economic risk. Together with “labor costs”, he tops the list of worries. sev Economy at a glance Smiling faces dominate our "smiley graphic". The location is friendly across all industries. There are only sad prospects for planning in wholesale and retail. The green and red arrows show the change since last autumn. Industry with sales growth in 2015 The manufacturing industry increased its sales by 1.7 percent in 2015 compared to the previous year. Companies with 50 employees and more reported a revenue volume of 13.7 billion euros to the state statistical office IT.NRW. 38 percent of this was achieved through export business. The industry in North Rhine-Westphalia, on the other hand, posted a minus of 1.4 percent in total sales. The month with the highest turnover on Hellweg and in the Sauerland was September with 1.26 billion euros, the weakest in December (0.98 billion euros). The furniture industry recorded the greatest growth in economy in 03/2016 last year. It increased total sales by 10 percent and exports by as much as 16 percent. It is followed by the manufacture of metal products (+ 8.6%). The branch with the highest turnover remains electrical engineering with 3.3 billion euros. It increases 1.5 percent compared to 2014. At the end of the year, the statistics show employment in the manufacturing sector of 53,390, just under one percent below the previous year's figure. The number of employees has not changed nationwide. The month with the highest sales was September. 11 Range: 1st place Professional compulsory reading: 1st place SME relevance: 1st place REM 2015 The new reach study decision-makers in medium-sized businesses The 72 IHK magazines in Germany are compulsory reading for many entrepreneurs who decide on a business relationship with your company. Because the IHK magazines achieve a reach of 1.564 million readers per issue (LpA). * Place your advertisements where you want to reach your customers and establish new business relationships. At your location, in several IHK regions of your choice or nationwide with the IHK national combination. Planning support, offers and processing from a single source by our service organizations. Service NRW: IHK-Kombi West Tel: 0251 690-4813 [email protected] www.ihk-kombi-west.de Service national: IHK-Zeitschriften eG Tel: 0611 23668-0 [email protected]